Statistical Analysis of Future Prospective in COVID-19 Cases in India

Statistical Analysis of Future Prospective in COVID-19 Cases in India

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Ibrahim Abubakar Sadiq1, Sanjeev Kumar Sharma2 , Rabilu Ado3

1Department of Statistics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.

1,2,3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mewar University, Chittorgarh

Abstract:- In this study, we have done regression analysis to get confirmed positive cases of Covid-19 in the peripheral of Indian. We have applied 5% level of significance to get an ideal mathematical model to reach on conclusion about positive cases of COVID-19. We have used two relevant statistical software R- Studio and Gretl to find residual plot of the fitted modeled, Actual confirmed cases, Active cases, Recovered cases, Forecasting about Actual fitted deceased cases. This statistical precise calculation may be useful to predict actual data of all above mentioned variables so that doctors and government give them proper treatment.

Keywords: COVID-19, R-Studio, Gretl, Model

1. INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 is described as infection by a novel corona virus. Now it is identified as rigorous acute respiratory syndrome corona virus two (SARS-CoV-2). It was acknowledged as 2019-nCoV formerly. Firstly symptom of this respiratory illness was seen in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. It was primarily notified by the World Health Organization on December 31, 2019. On January 30, 2020, the WHO announced the COVID-19 outbreak a world health emergency. On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared COVID- 19 a world pandemic, it was first come in existence since declaring H1N1 respiratory tract infection as pandemic in 2009.

When a new virus exists, for the survival purpose, we often have to discover much more knowledge about it. How does COVID-19 transmit from one person to another person? As we know through printed, electronic media and medical staff, majority of respiratory viruses are used to spread by huge droplets that come out during human being cough as well as sneeze and remain in the open sky air generally for about five to six feet. They come down on materials surfaces, and transmitted one person to another person by either touching or holding those specified surfaces, like iron or any other hard surfaces. Some research also says that COVID-19 viruses have possibility to spread in the surrounding air and remain there for a longer time in the form of tiny droplet nuclei.

Its a technology era so we have got statistical data of COVID

-19 positive patients from various reputed online sources like Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, a unit of Government of India, Worldometers, Covid19india.org, Biospectrumindia.com, CoronaTracker.Com, Mygov.in, Hindustan Times and Times of India.

2. DATA ANALYSIS

2.1 Regression analysis

COVID-19 positive patients in India are increasing continue on a daily basis even with implementation of physical distancing of nationwide lockdown. As per the record of health ministry of India, developed and industrialist state Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi continue to remain the most affected states by the Covid-19 pandemic than others.

We have developed a precise statistical model concerned to confirmed, active, recovered and deaths cases in India due to this pandemic up to 13th May, 2020. The fitted model is Confirmed Cases = -4.737e-14 + 1.000e+00(Active) + 1.000e+00(Recovered) + 1.000e+00 (Deceased)

Descriptive Measures for Residuals:Table2Table3 Confidence limitsTable4Table 5 Confidence limitsTable 6Table 8

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